Tekken 8 has concluded its first season, and it hasn’t been the smoothest experience. While the return of Eddy and Lidia was without controversy, Heihachi’s return despite being “completely dead” was poorly received by those who care about Tekken’s story. This happened alongside the release of a new stage that was a paid purchase separate from the season pass, provoking much criticism. Heihachi did at least come with a free story update that set a good precedent for the game’s future (we won’t need to wait until the next console generation for the game’s cliffhanger ending to be resolved!), although the addition of a battle pass and paid DLC costumes has proven contentious. Lastly, the season was closed out with the addition of Clive from Final Fantasy XVI as a guest character. I have written on this blog about guest characters and about Final Fantasy XVI before, so I will not repeat myself.

Season 2 is an opportunity to turn things around. While the battle pass is definitely not going away, there are some reasons to be optimistic otherwise. It has already been confirmed that stages will be included in the season pass. We’ve also seen the first character revealed, series veteran Anna Williams, a much-demanded fighter whose absence was lamented by many. That still leaves three more characters. I don’t have the information to tell you who they’ll be. Instead, I’ll be using my own intuition and a look at series history to evaluate which characters are likely to be returning, while also offering my opinion of who should be returning.

Background: Tekken 7

Tekken 7 received a total of fourteen DLC characters over its four seasons (Eliza, who was included as a pre-order bonus and available at launch, is not being counted). Of these fourteen, seven characters were returning legacy characters, four were entirely new characters, and three were guest characters from other media. Kunimitsu is a bit of an edge case. She is a distinct individual from the prior Kunimitsu, but the same can be said of the current incarnations of King and Armor King. She does play differently enough from the original Kunimitsu that I’m comfortable calling her a newcomer, however. If we applied this ratio to Tekken 8, we could expect half of all DLC characters to be legacy characters, and the other half to be split between guests and original characters. It is worth bearing in mind, however, that the four new characters were the final four characters to be added to the game. That would mean we shouldn’t expect totally new characters for a while.

Another consideration is the precedent set by series history. Since Tekken 5, every playable character from the prior game has returned in its sequel (Tekken 5 featured all of Tekken 4’s newcomers, etc.). Tekken 7 broke from this tradition slightly by not including Zafina, although she did return in the game’s third season. Raven was also not included, but his moveset was replicated in Master Raven. Tekken 7 featured a whopping twelve newcomers, however, and this is without including the guest characters. Of these, three were included in the launch roster of Tekken 8, and Master Raven was replaced by the original Raven. One more has returned in Season 1’s DLC. It would therefore seem unlikely that the remaining seven Tekken 7 newcomers are all going to be returning.

Who Isn’t Coming Back

We can identify a few categories of characters that can easily be ruled out of consideration. The first and most obvious category is the guest characters. It seems highly unlikely that Akuma, Geese, Negan, and Noctis are going to return, and virtually impossible for Gon to ever see the light of day in a Tekken game. This near-certainty is part of why I felt it prudent to distinguish guest characters from newcomers, even if they were technically new to the series.

Another category I would like to rule out is joke characters. In some cases, these characters are effectively clones of existing characters (Slim Bob, Sebastian, Tiger Jackson), so their inclusion would be unnecessary. Other joke characters are unique, but to an extent that makes them practically unplayable, most famously Dr. Bosconovitch. It would be a hard sell to expect anyone to pay money for such a DLC. Extremely gimmicky characters like Mokujin and Combot are also going in this category.

Next is the category of boss characters. While some of these have been playable in their original games, they haven’t returned outside of the dream match Tag Tournament games. Ogre, Jinpachi, and Angel are all therefore highly unlikely to see a return.

Lastly is the matter of characters who have been effectively replaced. The timeskip between Tekken 2 and Tekken 3 meant that some characters were retired and replaced by younger successors, and similar things have occurred later in the series. In some games, two functionally similar characters have coexisted, but this was before the era of DLC. Asking players to spend money for a character so similar to a character they already have is sure to be unpopular. Some may balk and say that Baek Doo San is not the same as Hwoarang, but will the average player see it that way? The inclusion of Anna Williams does indicate they’re willing to bring back a character with a similar function to an existing character, but Anna was never meant to be a replacement for Nina. (A digression: Forest, Christie, and Master Raven all have the dubious distinction of having been placement characters that later got replaced by the character they were originally replacing.)

Who Might Come Back

The problem with the above methodology is that it still leaves, by my count, 15 characters who could be returning (Ganryu, Wang, Armor King, Bruce, Lei, Julia, Marduk, Bob, Miguel, Katarina, Josie, Gigas, Lucky Chloe, Fahkumram, and Kunimitsu). Accounting for potential newcomers and future guests, it seems highly unlikely that every one of these characters will be returning. You also may notice that a plurality of these characters are from Tekken 7. Even considering the precedent set by previous games, I doubt all of these characters will return. Some of them are getting the axe. From here on out, I’m less forecasting and more wishcasting who I would like to see in Season 2.

Julia

Julia is a series staple. Part of the new generation introduced in Tekken 3, she’s returned in every game since, albeit being a DLC character in Tekken 7 and having a different fighting style and persona, the masked wrestler Jaycee, in Tekken Tag Tournament 2. Julia’s return feels inevitable, but perhaps they could change things up and bring back Jaycee instead. While the Tag Tournament games are broadly non-canon, Julia’s writing in Tekken 7 seems to suggest Jaycee is still on the table. There’s also a remedy for the Julia purists: Her mother, Michelle. Intriguingly, Michelle is probably the only character’s whose probability of inclusion is contingent on another factor. If Julia returns as Julia, she’s almost certainly not coming back. If Julia returns as Jaycee, there is a possibility she’ll return to offer the more conventional Chang-style martial arts.

Bruce

Like Julia, Bruce is an old character, but unlike Julia, his appearances have been much more sporadic. He was introduced in Tekken 2, but didn’t make the jump to the new era in Tekken 3. Like everyone else, he was in the Tag Tournament games, and he had his moment in the sun in both Tekken 5 and Tekken 6. Unlike a lot of the early characters who didn’t make the jump to Tekken 3, there’s nobody who directly replaced Bruce. Bryan is the closest thing, but with some very noticeable differences and no overt connection to Bruce. Furthermore, despite the popularity of Muay Thai, there are not any Muay Thai users currently in the game. The other options are Josie and Fahkumram. Josie is a bit more eclectic and Fahkumram is a bit more orthodox, but neither of these characters are as interesting as Bruce.

A Newcomer?

While Tekken 7 didn’t get any newcomers as DLC until near the end of its life, the introduction of story expansions presents an interesting opportunity for Tekken 8. At this point, I’m moving away from speculation and towards just making stuff up, but hear me out. Tekken 8’s story mode ended on a bizarre cliffhanger revealing Reina to be hosting the presumed-extinct Devil Gene, and the first story expansion reveals that this is because Reina, rather than being Heihachi’s biological daughter, was actually a child of the Hachijo clan he adopted after killing the other living members. This opens the door to Devil Reina being a playable character, and there’s a good reason to do it, too. Kazumi is not likely to return, having died (Heihachi notwithstanding. And Jun, and Baek, and… okay, death doesn’t actually mean a lot in Tekken) and having been a boss character. But there are surely some who would like to see her fighting style return. Devil Reina could see Reina abandon the Mishima style of karate and adopt the Hachijo style of her original family. Regardless of how she’s implement, Devil Reina seems likely to show up at some point. Maybe she’ll just be an unplayable boss character based on the existing Reina! My idea, although lacking in hard evidence, is still within the realm of possibility.

Beyond Season 2

The direction the industry has taken means there will be more guest characters. More than anything else, I’m confident in this claim. I can’t tell you who they will be, although Sega’s attempt to revive Virtua Fighter makes a character from that series a distinct possibility, and Akira Yuki or Sarah Bryant would be much better choices than what others have asked for. This probably won’t happen until closer to Virtua Fighter 6’s release date, both for brand synergy and to have more assets to work with, but I’m going to keep it in the back of my mind. Other than that, I expect more legacy characters and some new character further down the road. If Season 2 goes a totally different direction from my prediction, I’ll reevaluate, and I’m more than willing to eat crow if the next characters are Baek, Ogre, and Alex, but I’ve given my reasoning, and I’ll stand by it until then.